TWO MORE of Britain's leading businessmen have joined the pounds 1m- a-year league after their pay packets
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TWO MORE of Britain's leading businessmen have joined the pounds 1m- a-year league after their pay packets were boosted by big one-off bonus payments. On the other hand, calamity seems as improbable as a continuation of the spectacular gains of the last 10 years.. Yet there is also a recognition on Wall Street of the genuine achievements of Main Street, Silicon Valley and - not least - the marble pillared splendour of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington DC.The right position to adopt on stock markets, both in the US and Europe, is not to expect too much. There is certainly excess froth in Internet stocks, and the rise in shares is not as broadly based as it might be for comfort. Which other economies look worth buying? What other assets offer significantly better yield? Hi-tech stocks have reached silly valuations, but where else is business as strong, and with such a robust technological lead, as in corporate America?For all these reasons, it is still hard to see what could send Wall Street tumbling in the short-term. It might take the merest prick - in the form of bad news on profits, or the trade deficit or interest rates, never mind a computer bug-related slump - to burst the bubble and send shares tumbling by 50 per cent or more.The trouble with this second theory, plausible though it might seem, is that as long as there is so much cheap money sloshing around it is almost bound to be proven alarmist nonsense.
On the one hand there is the karmic view taken by true believers in the Internet hype - that in the new economy whatever people believe to be true about valuations is true. On the other is the catastrophist theory that Wall Street is a bubble inflated far beyond anything that could be justified by fundamentals, such as expected profits. But, as even he admits: "There are more people considering leaving their jobs so they can trade stocks on their home computer than survivalists preparing for the Y2K calamity." This survivalist admission neatly encapsulates the dilemma for anybody feeling slightly woolly about prospects for share prices right now The alternative options are both so extreme. The Dow reaches 10,000 - so why not 11,000? This was certainly the reaction of one prominent Wall Street bear yesterday, Ed Yardeni of Deutsche Bank. To be scrupulously fair to Dr Ed, as he styles himself on his website, his bearishness concerns the future rather than the present, and the huge recession he reckons will result from the year 2000 computer problem. But they should be careful not to involve themselves with Mr Bishko again.. THERE COMES a point at which numbers lose their meaning. There is no guarantee that the turnaround is going to be achieved.
The fact that at the last count the business contained pounds 11m of cash - amounting to about half the value of the offer - is a temporary and seasonal phenomenon, HSBC says.There may not be much ordinary shareholders can do to halt this shabby little buyout. Furthermore, HSBC insists, Tie Rack requires quite a lot of investment going forward, involving considerable risk. But to add insult to injury, they are even being advised to do so by the spineless HSBC Investment Bank, which has been helping independent directors form an opinion on the bid.According to HSBC, the transmutation of Mr Bishko's 4.9 per cent stake into a 20 per cent one is explained by the leveraged nature of this transaction. Not bad, not bad at all for someone who has lost so much for so many.As it happens, outside shareholders have little option but to accept Frangi's insulting 43.5p a share offer; irrevocable undertakings to accept, mainly from an obscure Swiss trust, have already been given in respect of 45.6 per cent of the share capital. As a result, for little more money than he is getting for his existing 4.9 per cent shareholding in Tie Rack, Mr Bishko ends up with a 20 per cent stake in the ongoing business, Frangi Investments. Indeed, the terms might reasonably call for crueller punishment than a mere hanging - Mr Bishko, unlike everyone else, comes out of it smiling. Strictly speaking, yesterday's pounds 22.6m bid is from one of Tie Rack's suppliers, the Italian silk tie and scarf producer, Frangi. However, Frangi generously insisted that it would not be prepared to do the deal unless guaranteed of Mr Bishko's continued involvement.
Well, yesterday Mr Bishko duly unveiled a public to private bid. The price is a little bit higher than it was then, but by not enough to justify a lesser sentence. TWO MONTHS ago, this column wrote that if Roy Bishko, the perennially upbeat South African who runs Tie Rack, were to attempt to take his company private at currently depressed prices, the City would string him up, given the loss of shareholder value that has occurred in the last two years. Firstly it means that shoppers with smaller bills - say the elderly or students - are effectively subsidising big-spending families. Secondly it means size rather than loyalty becomes the issue. Given that today's poverty-stricken student is tomorrow's big spending family, discriminating against the former category may not be such a good idea after all.. So why treat everyone the same? Pampering your biggest spenders is a logical extension of the system.


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